Monday, May 25, 2015

Weather, Currency & Make in India


The headline may suggest nothing at all for a beginner. But for an expert or someone who watches the atmosphere keenly it all makes sense... Ok we'll join the dots as we read this piece.
After making people keeping their fingers crossed, 'it' has finally arrived. It, El Nino, The Child's arrival is for sure. So how is a common man going to get affected by this change in weather pattern other than remembering to take my umbrella, you ask? Wait pal, there is more to this child.
Weather forecasting agencies across the globe have predicted an imminent El Nino. The India Met Dept has said that there are 33% chances that rainfall will be deficient this monsoon, i.e. below 90%. It also forecast a 70% probability of El Nino this year. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has declared that we are heading into a major El Nino event. 


Since Indian agriculture is largely dependent on monsoon for its water requirements, higher probability of El Nino spells a sparse/deficient rainfall.
El Nino occurs when the surface waters warm up. It takes place in the entire equatorial zone of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It affects wind pattern and triggers droughts and floods which typically lasts for about a year.

But why India should be worried and what will be this El Nino's impacts on markets and all that?
Ours is basically a farm economy that contributes almost 18% to the country's GDP. And we are already battered by unseasonal showers resulting in crop damage and lower output. El Nino lowers the production of crops such as rice, sugarcane, palm oil, corn, cotton and oilseeds. With El Nino coming, which usually results in drought and parched climatic conditions, inflation cannot be ruled out and we should brace ourselves to shell out more for food. And if food inflation surges, the central bank may pitch in to hike rates, manufacturing sector will suffer, and companies will be nimble-footed in making investments slamming the brakes on growth rate and the blue-eyed Make in India project.

So, is El Nino all about a bad omen?
No, not exactly. Only the Pacific Rim economies such as India, Japan, Australia, S-E Asian nations suffer while the Western Hemisphere enjoys a bountiful harvest and conducive agri-economy climate. El Nino may trigger social unrest in commodity-dependent countries that rely on imported food. 
El Nino results in both winners and losers. Countries in the western hemisphere such as the US, Canada, LatAm nations and the UK will stand to benefit as they wil receive a wet weather. This is a good news to the parched California. Also, the positive US data leads to a spillover effect on China. IMF says that China is less susceptible than other Oriental nations, policymakers might consider that any rise in the yuan due to increased trade with the US during the period might help suppress imported inflation.  Stronger yuan might have some attractions in an El Nino environment for China but for many economies, El Nino surely spells trouble.

Around the world
For Australia and New Zealand, El Nino brings hot, dry summers and accompanying drought. This leads to razed down wheat production and exports and dry dairies. In Indonesia, which, of late, is emerging as the cocoa basket, crops such as coffee, oil palm and cocoa will suffer and earlier time when El Nino struck the country in 1997-98, it not only triggered poor harvests and crop cycles but also economic unrest and financial crisis.

El Nino and Currency market
Ok, agreed it affects investments, India inc all that. But then how can a weather condition value/devalue a nation's currency unit? 
Yes, it can. In fact, to a larger extent than most of us think. If El Nino's effects can push dollar-denominated food and energy import prices, Asian economies such as India might prefer to have a stronger rupee to counter the threat of imported inflation. Also, China too may prefer to have a stronger yuan for its trade ties with the US - a nation that will surely be benefited by this climatic condition.
In short, agri-commodity exporting nations may benefit from higher prices but lose out from lower crop and industrial output. 


Saturday, May 16, 2015

Teaching: is it not reverred job anymore??

It’s that time of the year when students pass out with flying colours and all the toppers parrot the same ambition — to become a doctor or engineer and serve the public. But, what about the teachers? Why do we not see people wanting to be teachers? Has teaching lost its reverence? The answer, unfortunately, is yes. Reasons: It’s a mediocre-paying profession. Their remuneration does not often commensurate with the rising fees. Also, they too have ‘targets’ to achieve: completing so much of syllabus in one trimester; conducting a prescribed amount of practicals/projects; making proper assessments to judge kids’ learning curve, analysing the data — all these sans any professional development! All the more important is his/her multi-tasking ability. In days of yore, teachers could teach basic grammar and arithmetic besides moral values. But today’s demanding education environment wants a teacher to play more roles other than just being a teacher — he/she has to be a role model, a counselor, a parent figure, a judge, etc… all that in a friendly way. So, who would want to do all these with a minimal payscale? A recent paper, jointly released by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) and the Education for All Global Monitoring Report, shows that more than 27 million teachers will be needed to achieve universal primary education by 2030 and India alone needs 3 million teachers by 2030. In a rush to fill this gap, many countries, including ours, are lowering standards, often leaving new teachers with little or no training. As such, the talent pool entering this noble profession seems to be of low quality. Have you seen any coaching institutes mushrooming up for B.Ed or D.Ed aspirants? Most of them who take up teaching do so only out of their inability to land other high-demanding/ suitable jobs. So, mediocrity seems to be OK, which will be evident if you move to rural schools. Notwithstanding these, there is poor parental support. Instead of being a tad strict with their children, parents often blame teachers. Raise your voice and get yourself stabbed or shot dead by the student as it happened a while back in one of the Chennai schools. So many governments have come and gone yet there is little done to education reform. Serious steps should be taken to make teaching a sought-after profession, and to improve the hiring process of teachers. Let there be an eligibility test for teachers (irrespective of their degree) and a continual evaluation system besides a performance-based incentive/hike. Only if these are implemented properly with right vigour can we usher in achche din among the younger minds.

Friday, April 24, 2015

Farm genocide

What title do I give? Is it farmers'suicide? Or is it a genocide going by the alarming rise in the numbers?

Early last month, it was eight potato farmers in Bengal committing suicide. And now, it’s a Rajasthan farmer hanging himself from a tree at a political rally. Minutes after this, another grower from the same State ended his life by jumping before a speeding train.
While the media is at a frenzy reporting these showing close-up images of deceased farmers, politicians are busy in the usual mudslinging. And soon the nation will want to know everything about farmers, reasons for their suicides and all that thus bringing their pitiable family on screen.
While the Delhi government/AAP is being criticised for not acting quick enough to stop the death, AAP suspects BJP’s conspiracy to sabotage its rally! And the fresh-from-sabbatical Rahul Gandhi says it all happened because of the ordinance that has been brought by BJP. And we have an union minister giving his pearl of wisdom to farmers about gods and governments!
And noone sees the farmers’ pov. Behind these suicides lies an explosive cocktail of natural and manmade factors – crop loss caused by erratic weather, deficient monsoon, depleting watertable, procurement woes, inefficient policies with respect to taxes, loans and the deadly tentacles of private moneylenders.
The mindset of most of the educated, urban population is even more appalling: so what, they get free electricity, water supply, waiver of loans and all that!! Yes, but are these packages doing enough to address the plight of farmers? And how many farmers have access to these ‘free’ power/water? Do these limited sops do anything for crop yield, farm inputs/loans, assured irrigation, developing cold storage, marketing/pricing facilities? Or how many of the farmers are aware of crop insurance??
It is high time the government tweaked its agri-trade policies and the farmers, instead of being provided with meaningless incentives or false assurances, were educated on alternative source of income such as dairy farming, poultry, fisheries, etc. 
As I key in this, my son is reading a couplet from the Tamil work Thirukkural which runs thus: 
Palakudai nizhalum thamkudaikeezh kaanbar alagudai nizhalavar. (The reign of many kingdoms comes under the reign of those with abundant grain).
I can only think of the 2010 movie Peepli Live and nod my head with a wry smile!